When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the United States and Russia have abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to develop new kinds of nuclear weapons and expanded the circumstances in which they might use nuclear weapons. The result: one billion people die in a nuclear war. For a sustained investment of an additional $8 billion a year between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. Air Force could buy the kit needed to make a difference, he said, noting that similar sums would be required for the Army and Navy. Zoe Schneeweiss helpfully turned them into a single infographic: EDITED TO ADD: The Atlantic Council offers four scenarios for the wars ending. Sign in to add your own tags to this product. Before NATO can impose its no-fly zone, Putin orders strikes on any remaining airfields and military assets around Lviv, Kazianis related. In the two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marine Corps University ran a four-day wargame to simulate the first several days of just such an invasion. Required fields are marked *, Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. Putin and Lukashenko attended nuclear drills just before Russia invaded Ukraine. This is in contrast with nearly every expert and pundit on the airwaves, who are expressing astonishment at how this conflict is unfolding. If he used them, he would probably lose China.. A scenario is ant object to think through, while a simulation gives users ways to intervene in the problem. Take a second to support Bryan Alexander on Patreon! While it is possible, of course, that a nuclear exchange remains "limited" and the other side backs off or responds with conventional weapons only, there would be huge pressure on decision-makers to "respond in kind" and deny the side to strike first any advantage. Please check your browser settings to ensure that it is not blocking Facebook from running on straight.com. "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. Simulations perform a similar function, as a given run-through constitutes a narrative. The selected countries for comparison, Russia and Ukraine, are displayed below in side-by-side format.The Primary selection is displayed in Blue while the Secondary selection is displayed in Red.Go back to compare two other military powers. ukraine in Experiences; ukraine vs russia war in Experiences; ukraine obby in Experiences; ukraine rp in Experiences; ukraine in People; ukraine in Avatar Shop; . Feb. 21, 2022. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. This is so well-structured and thoughtful that it almost made me forget I was terrified while reading it. Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia are the principal priorities for the Department, and require both increased and sustained investment, because of the magnitude of the threats they pose to U.S. security and prosperity today, and the potential for thosethreats to increase in the future, the strategy explains. In real life, the Russian strikes appear to have been more widely spread over a range of targets. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make decisions to drive that situation to an end state. Ill share some here in the hope they give us some ways of thinking about where the crisis may be headed. So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflicts first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. Russia's military, like its population, is more than triple the size of Ukraine's. But should Putin order an invasion, he would not find it as easy as in 2014, when Russian special forces and . Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a major military cooperation event on February 19, by which point over 100,000 Russian troops had massed along Russias Ukrainian border. The more well-equipped and modernized units, he said, have moved into the area close to two breakaway provinces in Ukraine's east, where Russia instigated a separatist war in 2014 that continues . In an intelligence update on Tuesday, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said that since the end of February, there has . Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a "major military . ET. You have only 500s to defend Ukraine after that time the game is over. A Russian ballistic missiles guidance system fails and crash-lands into NATO member Poland, killing 34 civilians as it tragically lands into a populated village along the Polish-Ukraine border, Kazianis recalled about one scenario in the simulation. Research organization RAND has run dozens of wargames simulating major conflict scenarios in what it describes as Russia and Chinas backyards. The wargames suggest that the U.S. forces in those locations would get attacked by a vast array of both conventional and cyber weapons. One of us ran the wargame while the others played the Ukrainian and Russian forces. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. The U.S. National Defense Strategy, which was released by the DoD last year, cites the restoration of Americas competitive edge by blocking global rivals Russia and China from challenging the U.S. and our allies, as one its key goals. In an ironic reversal of the situation during the Cold War, NATO is now the dominant conventional coalition in Europe, while Russia is a weak state with a large but less powerful army. Putin also orders a massive cyber attack on the Baltic states military infrastructure, thinking that NATO will use the Baltics to stage an invasion of Russia. In fact, news reports indicate that is already happening. Russia-Ukraine war latest; Mark Rice-Oxley @markriceoxley69. "Once the nuclear threshold is crossed, it may be very difficult to prevent escalation to an all-out nuclear war, i.e., escalating from single use, to a tactical nuclear war in Europe, to a counterforce attack, and ultimately to a countervalue attacktargeting cities and economic centers with the aim of inhibiting the other side's recovery," Glaser said. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's . Kyivs forces try to help residents flee as Russian fighters press to capture city in eastern Ukraine. A Bloomberg column considers three scenarios, Looking Back and Looking Forward Are We Ready for This? You are really sick sociopaths to play Gods and engineer futures. The Federation of American Scientists says online that these countries possessed roughly 12,700 warheads as of early-2022. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. All rights reserved. Based on the wargames, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies, Ochmanek told Fox News. (thanks to Brian Tain for this post and for answering my question, as well as to Lennaert van Mierlo and the Association of Professional Futurists, especially Josh Calder and Stephen Aguilar-Milan, plus Viktor Motti. Putin was warned he could lose Chinese support if he goes nuclear. By David Leonhardt. The conflict followed fighting in Ukraine. Simulations can also shed light on difficult and emergent decisions, as well as surprising us as the future often can. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. On February 24, Russian forces began advancing into Ukrainian territory across several fronts, marking a major escalation in a conflict that started in 2014. Moreover, at the cost of 30 to 40 aircraft, in the wargame, the Russians gained air dominance, as the Ukrainian air force was virtually wiped out by day three of the wargame. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. I'm a huge history/geography fan, so if you're interested in those things aswell, this channel may be perfect for you! This situation is worsened by something becoming more apparent by the day; the Russian militarys capacity to conduct a vast joint and combined arms assault may not be quite as good as advertised. All fatality estimates are limited to acute deaths from nuclear explosions and would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from nuclear fallout and other long-term effects. Several scenarios via the excellent Naked Capitalism blog. s ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict. This was a controversial move that achieved limited tactical results. In another Russia successfully occupies Ukraine and the Baltic states, dealing NATO a major defeat. Ukraines ability to score some early wins and demonstrate incredible acts of courage from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on down have generated an inspired defense, similar to Ukraines course in the wargame. Air Marshal Edward Stringer, former head of RAF intelligence, this week said a conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons will be weighing on the minds of those making difficult calculations at the moment. On the other side of the ledger, Ukrainian forces have counterattacked and retaken Kherson. "The actual fatalities would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from the collapse of medical systems, as well as nuclear fallout and other long-term effects, including a possible global-scale nuclear winter.". Blue denotes U.S. forces in the simulations. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! In the east, the Russians were starting to encircle Kharkiv and the 8th Combined Arms Army was emerging from the Donetsk area to attack towards Melitopol and the Dnieper River. If you enjoyed the video, drop a LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for more. In February 2020, the Pentagon announced that the US had launched a simulated nuclear strike against Russia. The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. The immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP, an online tool that was developed by Alex Wellerstein at the Stevens Institute of Technology. Its aim is to highlight the "potentially catastrophic" consequences of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. "And if we arent careful," Kazianis wrote in a recent article, "what happened in a simulation could happen if aNATO-Russia warerupts over Ukraine.". A video claims to show war between Russia and Ukraine before the former had invaded the latter. If you enjoyed this video, makes sure toSubscribe To The Channel!Like The Video!Ring The Bell!Upload Schedule Every Wednesday and Saturday!Discord https://discord.gg/WkezWuMTwitter https://twitter.com/AdizzProInformationHello, I am AdizzPro. In another Russia successfully occupies Ukraine and the Baltic states, dealing NATO a major defeat. The alliance decides to set up a limited no-fly zone around the Ukrainian city of Lviv to protect innocent civilians and refugees that are trapped and have nowhere to go, Kazianis wrote. Its total in 2021 was estimated to be $801bn, according to Statista. What does it do? Prosecutors allege the Kansas men conspired to evade US export laws starting in 2020. The nuclear exchange quickly escalates in Europe with Russia sending 300 warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to hit NATO bases and advancing troops. What do you make of these? The heroic resistance of the Ukrainians inspires awe and admiration. More than 90 million people would be killed or injured in a nuclear war between the US and Russia if a conventional conflict went too far, according to a new simulation created by researchers. March 2, 2022. Your email address will not be published. The sound is by Jeff Snyder. We speak to six young Russians about the devastating conflict, which has entered a second year. The researcher notes that the key domains of warfare are contested from the start of hostilities. The idea is that the threat of a nuclear strike would force any opponent, in this case NATO, to return to the status quo. War in Petropol . Despite a few stark differences, the current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to that simulation. Follow James Rogers on Twitter@jamesjrogers. By the time the wargame ended, the overall situation appeared very much as it does on the ground in Ukraine, with only two major deviations. Gotta love @BryanAlexanders ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. Thus, they have held back much of their overwhelming fires complex to avoid destroying significant amounts of infrastructure and killing too many of their Ukrainian brothers. This was the reasoning employed in the game, and most current reporting shows it was the thinking dominating the Kremlin. Russia says the top diplomats spoke on the move at a G20 meeting in India but did not hold Ukraine negotiations. Primary initial targets in the wargame were Ukrainian S-300 systems around Kyiv, the Dnieper River bend, Kherson, and Odessa. The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces. He added that since the late Noughties, Russia has increasingly exercised its nuclear forces, both with live forces and also with tabletop forces. Next War: Poland photo by Jakub Kircun), Pingback: Looking Back and Looking Forward Are We Ready for This? Russia was preparing to do precisely that when the wargame ended. Also, at the start of the campaign, the Russians avoided striking at the four regional Ukrainian command and control headquarters, in order to allow them to communicate their surrender if the government collapsed. Civilians flee embattled Bakhmut as Ukrainian pullout looms, Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 374, Biden, Scholz pledge to punish Russia over Ukraine war, Wagner chief urges Ukraines Zelenskyy to abandon Bakhmut, The Wagner Group explained | Start Here, Russias Andrey Kelin: Ukraine invasion can be called civil war, Biden, Scholz praise Western cooperation on Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 373, Russia envoy denies atrocities, blames West for Ukraines misery, US arrests two for allegedly exporting aviation tech to Russia, Indias G20 meeting ends without consensus on Russia-Ukraine war, Russia accuses Ukraine of cross-border attack in Bryansk, Blinken, Lavrov talk at G20 meeting as US-Russia tensions soar, Russias Generation Z: Some are more Z than others, Al Jazeera Centre for Public Liberties & Human Rights. Staff writer Carlito Pablo lives in Vancouver. [F]uturist and higher-ed guru Bryan Alexander. In 2019, Harry J. Kazianis participated in an American simulation of a war between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Russia using claims about Ukrainian nuclear weapons to justify invasion, UK says. The crucial early decision for Ukraine was what to do with the 17 to 20 battalions arrayed on the line of control in the Donbas area. Still, the retreat was necessary in the wargame to ensure those forces were not encircled from the north and by forces moving out of Crimea. Let us know in the comments section here. This defaults to your Review Score Setting. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive. What Ukraine must figure out now is Russias likely next moves, as Putin concludes that his invasion is not going to be a modern day Anschluss. was a computer rendering from a combat flight simulator originally uploaded by a YouTube user with just 3,000 . Eastern Front Military War Simulator . Combat Flight Simulator 2022 Defend Ukraine from Z Russian Forces invading Ukraine, Fly a plane and destroy hostile Russian units(Tanks, Ships, airplanes, soldiers and many more). There have been dozens of wars in the almost 80 years since World War II ended. Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXy Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.c. It may turn out the Russian advance was slowed due to political directives, but, at the moment, many observers can fairly attribute much of what is being reported from the battlefield to general Russian incompetence. Indeed, it looks like the Biden administration took both simulations and scenarios seriously in their planning. But as this is being written, even here the Russian initial advances toward Kyiv appear to have been stymied some miles north of the city. For their part, the U.S., EU and NATO have warned Russia that . 01:18. Since current events gradually render these alternate histories, they may also serve as interesting historical notes. American space assets could also face attacks, while U.S. command and control systems could be targeted by electromagnetic and cyber weapons. Russia must also now be considering next steps. The Russian . The US spends more on defence than the next nine big spenders in the world combined. Princeton, NJ 08542, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. The United States intends to replace its existing fleet of Minuteman III missiles which came into service in the early 1970s with a new . If history provides any glimpse into the future, the Russian army will eventually uncoil, absorb the wars early lessons, and renew its advance with grim determination. Are there other scenarios or simulations for this topic which you recommend? - Need more user reviews to generate a score, Espaol - Latinoamrica (Spanish - Latin America). First, the Russians have pushed harder out of Belarus to the west of the Dneiper north of Kyiv to strike the city from the rear. Foreign ministers meeting is marred by disagreements as Russia and China reject joint statement calling for end to war. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. The chaos of the past week might be incorrectly comforting. Front-line Polish army units faced the loss of between 60 and 80 percent of their equipment. Sign in to see reasons why you may or may not like this based on your games, friends, and curators you follow. The intent of these orders was to lure Russias 8th Combined Arms Army into expending vast amounts of resources hitting empty positions, as the Ukrainians would have already fallen back to the Dnieper River. To the end of assessing the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict on the Russian economy, this paper distinguishes four different processes: the structural downturn of the Russian economy prior to the events in Ukraine ; the initial impact - i.e. It is therefore noteworthy that aside from Anonymous declaring cyber war on Russia, there is very little public reporting of actual cyberattacks by either side. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. Ukraine and Russia explained in ten maps and charts. Figure 5: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Northern Front. On this channel you can expect to see a large variety of mapping content! Russian missiles could reach the UK within 20 minutes. Another difference was in the impact of the Russian air and missile campaign. They send salvos that are so great that we cannot intercept all the missiles, Ochmanek said. Fears remain that Moscow will launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine. This elicited at least one critique. In a wartime scenario, Russian and Belarusian forces . A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. What is the Wagner Group? 1. Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. According to research organization RAND, should a major conflict arise in Russia and China's 'backyards,' US forces would be crushed by a vast array of both conventional and cyber weapons. Mark Esper served as US Secretary of Defence from July 2019 until November 2020. Simultaneously, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while a massive military gamble for China, would also pose a huge challenge for U.S. forces in the area. 100% 0. Nathan Barrick, Ph.D., a strategist at US Special Operations Command, is currently a student at the Marine Corps War College and a former U.S. Army Russian foreign area officer. The meeting comes as the US annouced a new military aid including tactical bridges to move tanks and armoured vehicles. Some of that force was moved north to the Belarussian border in case of a secondary Russian assault out of western Belarus, but most of it was ordered east to help defend Kyiv and to bolster the Dnieper defense. At present, none of these cities have fallen, and the Russian ground offensive appears to be slowing, as it faces stiffening resistance and logistic challenges. The result . apart from the sanctions - of the degradation of the situation in Ukraine . Putin, and those advisers who still have his ear, may have been convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and the march to Kyiv would be an easy one. NATO decides to respond in kind, Kazianis wrote. Watch this video to find out what will happ. File photo - Infantrymen of the 3rd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, fire M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 vehicles on Tapa Army Base, Nov. 13, 2015. The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world. | Rob Reynolds. The map above shows the prewar garrison positions of Ukraines land forces. They added it was a limited response and did not say what type of target the US military had simulated attacking. In the wargame, every strike was focused on eliminating Ukraines air force and air defense network. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. GENEVA (AP) Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered "the most massive violations of human rights" in the world today, the head of the United Nations said Monday, as the war pushed into its second year with no end in sight and tens of thousands dead. Set against this backdrop, U.S. military outposts and aircraft carriers in the contested regions could face a potential devastating barrage of missiles. But it was almost the precise course of action the Russians undertook in the wargame. Much of the Ukrainian air force was destroyed on the ground as a result of Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missile strikes, special operations-enabled targeting and direct action, and air strikes. The 36-minute video ( here ) was . This project is aimed at developing a new simulation to explore nuclear war between the United States and Russia and the role of the current fleet of 400 on-alert silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in U.S. nuclear strategy and plans. In the case of this particular wargame, its near concurrent use with the actual start of the war presents an opportunity to make constructive comparisons and contrasts. The United Nations Refugee agency (UNHCR) protects and assists the refugees of this and all other conflicts worldwide. All trademarks are property of their respective owners in the US and other countries. In the ensuing battle, both the 27th SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed. The hope is that students will develop insights from these wargames that help them better understand joint warfighting. The livestream of a videogame superimposed with a banner that reads "Breaking News" and "Russia vs Ukraine war start (sic)" has triggered confusion online. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. Click. In RANDs wargames and analysis, Russia, and particularlyChina, unleash so many missiles that they overcome U.S. defenses. Ukrainian resistance is not yet at the point where one can make comparisons to Finlands courageous stand against Stalins Red Army in the 1940 Winter War, but the possibility of Ukraine holding out for weeks or months must now be part of everyones calculations, including the Russians. Feb 25, 2023 2:35 PM EST. Much of this is what one would expect based on what we know about the Russian way of war. Dr Heather Williams, nuclear expert at King's College London, told the BBC: Russia is heavily dependent on Chinese support, but China has a no first use nuclear doctrine. Moscow says Ukrainian saboteurs opened fire against civilians on Russian territory, a claim Kyiv denies. This project is motivated by the need to . I think this is at the small unit scale, but haven . If this wargame had been played at the Pentagon or the White House in the weeks leading up to the war, no strategist or policymaker would be shocked by any event so far seen in the war. But the game differed in several major aspects from what most analysts expected prior to the war. First, the amount of fires employed in the wargame was only a fraction of what the Russians had available. ET, November 22, 2022 Ukraine expresses outrage after Hungarian prime minister's scarf shows western Ukraine as part of . Also, this is my first video in a while without commentation. Vladyslav Musiienko / Reuters. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. Ex-French soldier who witnessed the Bucha war crimes committed against civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine survives assassination attempt by Kiev, requests asylum in Russia "Those 87K armed IRS agents are needed to fight the black market which will spring up as soon as CBDC is introduced." ZH Comment If you enjoyed the video, drop a LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for more.Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXySupport me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/sturmfuhrerpkDOWNLOAD OFFICIAL VERSION FOR COMPUTER - https://bit.ly/3JNFVHR#StandWithUkraineIn just the last seven days, one million people have fled Ukraine because of the pointless war waged by the Russian Federation. The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. It ranks in the top five nations which spend the most on their military.
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