who would win a war between australia and china

Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. Aukus: Australia's big gamble on the US over China - BBC News Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. No one can win nuclear war, Russia, China, Britain, U.S., France say John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". One accident. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? - The National Interest [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Then theres the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. But would Australia immediately take up the fight? A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Failing to come to Taiwans aid would seriously weaken and perhaps destroy Americas position in Asia, and our alliance with America would be seriously weakened if not destroyed if we failed to support the US. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. But it is already outnumbered. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. Grim prediction if war breaks out between US and China - Yahoo! "The defence of Taiwan is predicated on a Chinese invasion but if China's main effort is not an invasion but a blockade, then what? China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. And thats precisely the same vulnerability that saw obsolete battleships sent to the bottom so quickly during World War II. What war between China and the US looks like | news.com.au Australia Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. But will it be safer for women? Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. Possibly completely different. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. "Now, as we approach reaching 10 billion people on earth, we see more difficult problems arising from this population burden. "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. 3-min read. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. China is aware of this gap. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. "Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? Chinas military build-up is making a difference. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. Here are some tips. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. A former US Army lieutenant colonel has warned of a possible "nuclear exchange" if the US breaks out into war with China. . Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. Far fewer know their real story. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". It has just about every contingency covered. "But it is an entirely different story with China. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. Let's take a look at who would . China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. Ross Babbage is a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington and the C.E.O. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. Nationwide News Pty Ltd 2023. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. An accident could trigger a cycle of escalation. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Chinas 1264 warplanes, meanwhile, are based in China. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? The capital of China is Beijing. To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. But this will take time. Russian Struggles in Ukraine Show US Special Operators' Logistics Needs The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. It has been since at least Monash's time. That is massive! Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before

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